Feb22022
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Origin of Groundhog Day

Groundhog Day is a popular North American tradition observed in the United States and Canada on February 2nd, said to foretell the upcoming weather. According to the superstition, if a groundhog comes out of its hole on this day and sees its shadow, it will retreat into its den, and winter will go on for six more weeks. If it does not see its shadow, spring will arrive early. 

The first Groundhog Day was celebrated on February 2, 1887, featuring the famous Punxsutawney Phil at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. While the tradition remains popular, studies have found no consistent correlation between the groundhog’s prediction and the arrival time of spring. 

Table of Contents

  • Origin of Groundhog Day
  • Why Do We Use a Groundhog to Predict the Weather?
  • How Accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

Why Do We Use a Groundhog to Predict the Weather?

Groundhogs, also known as woodchucks, are short, stocky mammals with brown fur and a flat, bushy tail. They love eating garden vegetables and flowers and are excellent burrowers that dig vast tunnels with numerous chambers. Groundhogs are true hibernators. Like bears, badgers, and hedgehogs, these animals sleep through the winter and will naturally wake up as the weather gets warmer. 

In Germany, badgers were actually used to predict the weather. However, badgers were not so common in Pennsylvania, where Germans first established settlements in the United States. In 1887, rumors were circulating around a groundhog’s ability to predict the weather – our good ole Punxsutawney Phil. Shortly after, the entire country turned towards that chubby rodent to predict the coming spring, and thus, Groundhog Day was born.

How Accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

You would be better off flipping a coin. According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, “Phil has predicted 107 forecasts for winter and just 20 for an early spring.” The groundhog’s predictions have been analyzed since 1887 by the Stormfax Almanac, and “Phil has only been correct 39% of the time.”

As of this morning (Feb. 2, 2022), Punxsutawney Phil came out of his burrow and saw his shadow. Therefore, as the superstition goes, that means six more weeks of winter weather. While we Midwesterners are used to cold winters, I think we all look forward to sooner and warmer spring-like weather.